[Bitcoin Faces CPI and PPI Tests This Week, Market Bets on 58.4% Probability of Fed Rate Hike in September] BlockBeats News, September 7: Bitcoin is set to face several key macroeconomic events this week. The U.S. August PPI and CPI data will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively, while the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. According to CME FedWatch data, the market currently estimates a 58.4% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. Meanwhile, Japan's record-breaking currency intervention and potential U.S. Treasury bond sell-off have also become focal points for the market. Since the end of July, Japan's foreign exchange reserves have decreased by approximately $79.57 billion, with speculation that Japan may sell U.S. Treasuries to fund yen intervention. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates by 25 basis points in September has reached 98%. Changes in the yen and arbitrage trading could further impact global liquidity and the crypto market. On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that the recent BTC rally has been primarily driven by the futures market, without corresponding confirmation from spot demand. Derivatives open interest increased by approximately $2.3 billion in a single day to $27.53 billion, while spot demand remains negative, suggesting doubts about the sustainability of the current rally. From a technical perspective, BTC achieved its first weekly close above $80,000 in several months this week, though strong selling pressure remains near the $80,000 level. Additionally, BTC's weekly Supertrend indicator has turned to a "buy" signal for the first time since November 2025. A similar signal was observed after the bear market bottom in early 2023. [Original Link]