律动BlockBeats|Sep 07, 2026 06:34
[Jefferies: Lowers SenseTime Target Price to HKD 1,183.79, ARR Guidance Exceeds Expectations but Sustainability in Question]
BlockBeats News, September 7, Jefferies released a report stating that SenseTime's guidance for $2.4 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026 exceeded expectations, but its sustainability is in question due to a high base in August, uneven growth in computing power supply, high customer concentration, and low switching costs. The report noted that while SenseTime's cloud business gross margin improved in the first half of 2026, it may decline in the second half due to the launch of new domestic GPU clusters and the recovery of the Coding Plan. The target price has been lowered from HKD 1,299.8 to HKD 1,183.79, maintaining a Hold rating.
The firm raised its revenue forecast for SenseTime from 2026 to 2029 by 37% to 119%, reflecting accelerated growth in the cloud segment, and reduced its net loss forecast by 14% to 21%. In the sum-of-the-parts valuation, the cloud segment's multiple was reduced from 50x to 30x the 2026 projected annual recurring revenue to better align with overseas peers.
The firm still believes that the Chinese large language model industry is overly crowded and favors full-stack cloud service platforms with advantages in computing power, data, and monetization, such as Alibaba (09988.HK) and ByteDance, over relatively independent AI labs.
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