Assuming the Trump, Bessent, and Waller division-of-labor theory holds true. In the current situation where Waller remains hawkish, if inflation doesn’t show significant improvement and there’s a sudden pause in rate hikes in September, the bond market might start to believe: the Fed is constrained by fiscal pressures and is unwilling/unable/afraid to control inflation. The result could be unchanged policy rates, but rising long-term bond yields and corporate financing costs. This would turn into a scenario of choosing the lesser of two evils, ending up with nothing gained, and severely damaging the credibility of both the Fed and Waller personally. So even if this Friday’s CPI data turns out to be extremely dovish, and they ultimately decide not to hike rates, Waller must maintain a hawkish stance to uphold the last line of defense. In such a situation, relying solely on CPI statistics might still lack persuasiveness. At the very least, Trump would need to quickly ease tensions with Iran during the week of 9/11–9/17 to bring down oil prices, creating the illusion that oil prices are under control to support the decision not to hike rates. Therefore, if they are indeed managing the pace, the path that aligns more closely with their goals would be: allowing oil prices to disrupt the market but stepping in to cool things down when constraints become too strong; allowing stock pullbacks but striving to keep corporate financing smooth. If Trump works to ease tensions and oil prices fall, Waller completes one rate hike, and the market lowers expectations for further hikes, then gold, storage, and Bitcoin could all see a recovery rally once the bearish factors are fully priced in. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT, 10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, and enjoy dividend payouts.