灯塔说|Sep 07, 2026 03:47
Review and trading thoughts:
Last Friday, strong non-farm payroll data boosted rate hike expectations. After breaking through 82K, the market pulled back, but there was no continued retracement over the weekend. ETF inflows provided some support to the market. On September 3, BTC ETF net inflows were approximately $730.8 million, and on September 4, there were additional net inflows of $174.6 million.
This Friday, we have the CPI data release, which could further influence September's rate hike expectations.
My view remains unchanged. The major potential macroeconomic bearish factor is still rate hikes. However, given the current U.S. fiscal situation, rate hikes are unlikely. While the Fed appears independent, in reality, it won’t raise rates, but it also won’t cut them. If inflation remains high, the Fed will maintain a hawkish tone but refrain from actual rate hikes.
Therefore, any bearish sentiment before the rate decision is just an adjustment and retracement for the market. A small retracement is an opportunity for small longs, while a larger retracement should focus on the previously mentioned re-entry point at 72-73K before heading to 96-97K.
The above is the general thought process!
As for gold, the previous 4680 adjustment hasn’t ended yet. The rebound from 4300 to 4500 aligns with expectations, but further adjustments are likely before continuing to rise. Keep an eye on the 4200 area as the next potential starting point for an upward move.
Intraday: Look for low longs on BTC around 78K. For gold, watch the 4360-4380 support zone and the 4460-4480 resistance zone, expecting range-bound adjustments.
[This is just a personal trading perspective and does not constitute any investment advice.]
bitcoin:native ethereum:0x68749665ff8d2d112fa859aa293f07a622782f38
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