Let’s assume the U.S. is really operating as the trending posts these past few days suggest: Trump, Bassent, and Walsh dividing responsibilities to control oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, interest rates, and rate hike/cut expectations. Especially if Trump can completely manipulate the pace of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz with Iran (e.g., delaying retaliation, holding back action) to adjust oil prices in the short term, then inflation data could also be adjusted in the short term. In that case, the recent rise in oil prices could serve as a great excuse for Walsh to go hawkish or even push for a rate hike in September. If they really want to hike rates in September, they could keep oil prices high all along. If, after the September 11 CPI release, the probability of a September rate hike spikes and they want to suppress it again, they could lower oil prices after the CPI data is released. This way, during the September 16 FOMC meeting, they could decide not to hike rates and justify it by saying high oil prices are not sustainable (even though the September 11 CPI reflects August data, they could force the narrative that high oil prices are temporary). The Fed gets a perfect way to step down gracefully. This strategy allows for both offense and defense, with the worst-case scenario being maintaining a hawkish stance. In short, whether they hike rates or not can be coordinated with oil prices, allowing the Fed to maintain its image of independence and credibility. If this speculation holds, it might only be after the CPI data release that shorting crude oil becomes viable. Let’s take it step by step next week. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT, 10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, and enjoy dividend payouts.