水博乱乱|Sep 06, 2026 13:43
Continuing to follow up on a few on-chain models this weekend:
1. Two bull/bear models are still in the bull market range (Figure 1).
2. Several on-chain cost models are still above their respective cost lines (Figure 2).
3. The short-term trader model almost entered the overheated zone but pulled back last week and is now in a healthy state (Figure 3).
4. USDT premium model: USDT has re-entered the premium zone... funds are flowing in.
(Off-chain funds are entering the chain via AmericaC, then converting to USDT to buy BTC—because BTCAmericaT has better liquidity.
Currently, USDT is more expensive, indicating funds are being converted from USDC to USDT to enter the market.)
Considering the ETF, Friday's non-farm payroll data, and the initial sell-off in the first half, the overall trend is still inflows... ETF sentiment is also decent.
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1 & 2 --- Mid-cycle remains bullish.
4 & ETF --- Short-term funds are still leaning bullish.
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