The next 7 days are more important than any technical indicator. Starting from September 6th, the Federal Reserve entered a period of silence - all officials shut up, and the market entered a sensitive window of "data vacuum+expectation game". Four nodes, each of which may change the macro script of the fourth quarter. Node 1: Monday (September 7th) - US Labor Day holiday, US stock market closed. Thin liquidity+no guidance from the US stock market=weekend volatility may be amplified. BTC has just experienced a roller coaster ride - Friday's non farm payroll data exceeded expectations (adding 162000 people, about three times the expected number), concerns about interest rate hikes reignited, and BTC was directly smashed through $80000 from above $82000. Node 2: Thursday (September 10th) - This day is incredibly dense ① European Central Bank interest rate decision Economists unanimously expect a 25 basis point rate hike to 2.5%. This is the second and last time the European Central Bank has raised interest rates in this tightening cycle. A signal of further tightening of global liquidity. The US dollar will be pushed up, putting pressure on risky assets. ② Apple Autumn Launch Event New iPhone release. The emotional catalyst for technology stocks. If the press conference exceeds expectations, the US technology sector will rise → risk appetite will rebound → BTC will follow suit. If lower than expected, technology stocks will fall, along with cryptocurrency assets. ③ August PPI+initial jobless claims in the United States PPI is the vanguard of CPI. The market will search for inflation clues from here. PPI exceeded expectations → Friday CPI panic fermented ahead of schedule → BTC responds ahead of schedule. Node 3: Friday (September 11th) - CPI: Final Judgment Day This is the last heavyweight data before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. The market expects the core CPI to be around 2.4% year-on-year. But the differences are frighteningly large—— Bank of America Securities predicts a 0.22% month on month increase in core CPI, believing that inflation remains high enough to support a rate hike in September. Citigroup predicts that the core CPI will only be 0.184% month on month, and the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain inactive. The predictions of the two institutions differ by only 0.04 percentage points, but the conclusions are completely opposite. Node 4: September 15-16- FOMC Rate Resolution At present, the internal vote types of the Federal Reserve are: 6 votes support keeping interest rates unchanged, and 5 votes support raising interest rates. Director Powell's position is still unclear and may become a key figure in the 'one vote fixing' process. CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 50.2% - close to flipping a coin.