小龙先生|Sep 05, 2026 11:45
Mr. Xiaolong's Trading Review Room
-----A fund flow chart of ETF spot institutions, telling you whether the bull market of BTC has started ❗ ️
Brothers and sisters, today, instead of looking at the K line, we will look at a thing that determines the direction: the institutional capital flow chart of Bitcoin spot ETF. Over the past two months, this chart has accurately captured the 'tail of a bear market' and the 'start of a bull market'.
In this picture, the red column represents net outflow and the green column represents net inflow. What is your first impression when you see them? What I see is that the net outflow of funds from ETF spot institutions is gradually decreasing, while the net inflow of funds is increasing.
The two worlds in the picture
From June 10th to August 17th, there were almost all red columns. Throughout mid to late June to July, ETF institutions continued to sell, corresponding to BTC falling from 71000 to 60000-62000. Institutional retreat and heavy selling pressure are the pessimism of a bear market.
But from August 18th, things changed. The red bar stopped, and the green bar showed consecutive daily net inflows of 297 million, 453 million, and 503 million, with 8 consecutive trading days of net inflows. The net inflow in the last week of August was 924 million US dollars. August 18th is this clear watershed, without any ambiguous areas.
The heaviest pillar
On September 4th, non farm payroll data landed and the market fell for a while, but on that day, there was a net inflow of 730 million US dollars, the largest daily inflow since January 14th. Institutions are not running, they are afraid of missing out. Non agricultural bearish investors bought 730 million yuan against the trend on the same day, which is not retail investors, but institutional level funds laying out at low prices.
The qualitative change behind $3.8 billion
From August 18th to September 4th, a total net inflow of approximately 3.8 billion US dollars covered and exceeded the outflow of the previous two months. The total net assets increased from approximately 77 billion in mid August to approximately 99 billion. The direction of funds has completely shifted from 'outflow oriented' to 'inflow oriented'.
This is not a short-term fluctuation, but a qualitative change in the direction of the funding structure, which has already reversed.
What does this tell us
Combined with the market trend: BTC hit bottom at 57800 (accurately supported by the large cycle Fib 0.618), and the giant whale has increased its holdings by 73300 in the past 80 days, with no volume of short positions that cannot be moved, and the price has surged above 80000. And now, ETFs have stood firm with a net inflow of 3.8 billion real gold and silver in 18 days.
The strength of quantity and the flow of funds are the core factors that determine the direction of the trend.
When institutional funds continue to buy in large quantities, the bottom of the bear market is already written in every net inflow.
The bear market is likely to have ended. Bull market, direction has already started.
The only thing left to do is to wait for the volume station to reach 83339 and give the final confirmation of the full start of the bull market.
Retractions are opportunities to get on the bus 。 The funds have already been invested with 3.8 billion US dollars, why are you still hesitating?
BTC bull market
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