Murphy
Murphy|Sep 05, 2026 06:32
Isn't it obvious how sensitive BTC is to interest rates? Take a look at Coinbase... It's really just the sensitivity of 'Americans' being transmitted to BTC more quickly. When the ADP report and Waller's comments lowered rate hike expectations, Coinbase's SVD (Spot Volume Delta) instantly surged. This reflects strong momentum from proactive buying. But when the employment data came in way above expectations, it reignited rate hike concerns. SVD quickly dropped back down. That said, proactive selling pressure hasn’t been particularly strong for now (though it could also be because the weekend is approaching). Overall, my impression is: BTC is currently more sensitive to 'positive news' and relatively less sensitive to 'negative news.' Of course, there are two key dates coming up: 1. September 11th – CPI data: Will it reinforce rate hike expectations? 2. September 15-16 – FOMC: Even if there’s no rate hike, Warsh’s wording during the press conference could become a second shockwave. As for me, my personal view remains unchanged: From now on, it’s time to gradually adopt a 'bull market mindset' and abandon the 'bear market mindset.' When faced with any negative news, the only thing to think about is 'how to find a buying opportunity.' Stop always thinking about 'shorting' or 'playing the swings'; the former lacks cost-effectiveness, and the latter can easily disrupt your trading rhythm.
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