Trump is ramping up the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates again, threatening that if the Fed doesn’t lower rates, he’ll cut off trade with countries that have a trade deficit with the U.S. In reality, Trump and Powell want completely different things right now. Trump wants growth and cheap money—lower rates mean cheaper government borrowing, cheaper corporate financing, and an easier path for the stock market and economy to climb. Powell, on the other hand, is focused on protecting the dollar’s purchasing power and the Fed’s credibility. The more aggressively Trump pushes, the harder it becomes for Powell to back down, because doing so could make the market question the Fed’s independence. The most awkward part? While Trump is urging rate cuts, he’s also waging a trade war and escalating tensions with Iran. Tariffs could drive up goods prices, and military action is keeping oil prices above $90 per barrel. It’s like he’s demanding Powell cut rates while simultaneously making it harder for him to do so. That’s why the importance of the September 11 CPI data is off the charts. Bloomberg is forecasting headline CPI at 3.4% YoY and core CPI at 2.4% YoY. If core inflation continues to cool significantly, the Fed might have a reason to treat high oil prices as a supply shock and hold off in September. But if CPI surprises to the upside, combined with strong nonfarm payrolls and high oil prices, a September rate hike becomes increasingly likely. The market might even start pricing in a second hike in December.