If the Fed tightened here it would be the flattest yield curve at the start of rate hikes since 1965. It would also be the first time the Fed hiked with 10 yr term premium consuming effectively the entire positive slope of the curve. 10y Term Premium: 0.875 3m 10y yield curve: 0.87 The implication is that the market doesn't believe future short rates are much different from today's. An anomalous condition for a Fed tightening, historically.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)