Today's non-farm payroll data is indeed solid, but like I said, strong economic data actually works against rate cuts in front of the Fed. Instead, it gives the Fed more confidence to maintain high interest rates or even hike them. While I don’t think there will be a rate hike in September, diesel prices across the U.S. have recently surged to a new record of $5.85 per gallon, officially surpassing the historical high set in June 2022. This indicates that the Hormuz blockade has already transmitted from crude oil futures prices to the real transportation and production costs in the U.S. This time, the rise in diesel prices is significantly faster than crude oil. Trucks, railroads, agricultural machinery, construction equipment, and a large portion of industrial production in the U.S. all rely on diesel. After a $2-per-gallon increase, the added costs will gradually feed into freight, food, and various goods prices. So, the rise in oil prices doesn’t just affect non-core inflation—it will spill over into core inflation. In plain terms, if oil prices continue to rise, or even if they don’t but remain at current high levels, U.S. inflation is very likely to increase. If Trump can’t solve high oil prices, the Fed will have no choice but to address it with rate hikes. As for the midterms and the election, the Republicans might as well forget about it. For Bitcoin, the reaction is similar to U.S. stocks. A higher probability of rate hikes will inevitably lead to a decline in risk markets. And this is just the expectation—if the Fed actually hikes rates in October, we might be very close to the 'final dip.' Currently, my own bitcoin:native strategy remains a low-buy approach at 5%, trying to avoid triggering trades as much as possible. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all-in-one trading platform.