DC大于C
DC大于C|9月 04, 2026 14:43
The non-farm payroll data is out. Good data is bad data. It means the economy is still resilient, pushing the September rate hike expectations above 60%. I remember around 8 o'clock, the rate hike expectation was hovering near 50%. U.S. stock indices opened slightly lower, and Bitcoin also dropped below the $8k range. Next up, the focus will be on next Friday's CPI data. In August, oil prices (WTI) were mostly below $88. Back in July, they even spiked above $90. The CPI data for August, which will be released in September, shouldn't look too bad. It probably won't further push up the September rate hike expectations. But ultimately, it depends on the actual numbers and how the market adjusts its expectations for the September rate hike probability. Besides the CPI data, there's also the upcoming oil price trend. As of the time of posting, CL has already dropped below $90. Hopefully, $93 will act as resistance, and we’ll see some consolidation ahead. Trump TACO, let’s ease things up, shall we? Stop fighting. That might help dampen some of the rate hike expectations. Speaking of my oil short positions (CL, BZ), I’m still holding them, all the way from July until now. Honestly, I really regret not trading in waves this time. Even if prices do drop later, the fees will probably eat into some of the gains.
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