[QCP: BTC Enters Non-Farm Payroll Data Window After Credit Test Week] Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on September 4, QCP Capital released its weekly market report. Following Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September surged from 35% to 70%, leading to a single-day drop of approximately 2.5% in BTC. After nine consecutive days of ETF net inflows, a net outflow of $202 million was recorded. However, the U.S. dollar failed to maintain its hawkish pricing, with the DXY falling below 99.5, and gold, silver, and BTC all recovering their losses. On the fiscal side, the Treasury Department will initiate its first long-term liquidity support operation on September 9, raising the purchase cap to at least $4 billion (previously $2 billion). The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond auction in August was reported at 5.216%, the highest since 2001. The market will closely monitor whether this operation effectively improves long-term liquidity. On the inflation front, July's PCE was reported at 3.7% (core 3.3%), and CPI at 3.4% (core 2.5%). Brent crude oil surged approximately 10% in a single week due to the Hormuz Strait attack and Qatar LNG force majeure events, maintaining inflationary pressure. Waller stated that if data over the next two weeks continues the current trend, he would support pausing rate hikes. Coupled with ADP employment data showing only 38,000 (the weakest since January), the probability of a September rate hike has fallen back to 45–50%.