吴说区块链
吴说区块链|9月 04, 2026 11:01
Wu Blockchain has learned that QCP Capital stated that BTC traded within the $76,700–$81,500 range this week and faced resistance twice in the $81,000–$86,000 supply zone. Current futures open interest is near a five-month low, with crypto asset margin OI accounting for only about 11%, and funding rates annualized below 10%, indicating that there is no significant leveraged long squeeze in this rally. Meanwhile, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $731 million on September 3, but BTC failed to close higher that day. QCP believes this suggests there is still spot selling pressure near the $81,000 level. On the macro side, after Jackson Hole, the market's probability of a rate hike in September rose from about 35% to 70%, but later fell back to around 45%–50% due to weaker employment data and comments from Waller. The U.S. August non-farm payroll data, to be released tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time, will be the next key variable. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury auctions from September 8–11, long-term Treasury repos after expanded limits, and CPI data will further influence long-term yields and BTC's direction. QCP noted that over the next two weeks, the more critical issue for BTC may not be the federal funds rate itself, but whether the 30-year Treasury yield can stay below its August highs. https://(wublock123.com)/news/btc-leverage-stays-low-spot-sell-pressure-not-longs-limiting-rally-67826
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