Today's market I didn't expect this wave yesterday Waller gave a speech at 10 o'clock, not continuing the eagle, but rather some pigeons. At 10 o'clock, the ETF began to compete for funding . Yesterday, the inflow of 700 million yuan in one day set another record .. Why isn't it so important for Waller to release eagles? Because we are about to enter the quiet period of the September FOMC. Waller's speech yesterday can be regarded as the last truly important policy signal window before the September FOMC. Because during this critical period .. If the Federal Reserve really wants to raise interest rates in September, they usually give the market a precautionary shot in advance Through speeches and media communication in advance, gradually pricing the probability of interest rate hikes in the market. When there is a real interest rate hike like this, the market is already prepared. This preventive shot must be administered before the FOMC's quiet period begins. The last speech before the quiet period should be the best window. But Waller didn't do that, instead he eased the market. If the FOMC really decided to raise interest rates in September, he should have clearly continued to hawk yesterday. But he didn't do so, and the signal he conveyed was that the probability of a rate hike in September may not be as high as the market has priced it. The market will assume that the Federal Reserve's interest rate path may have changed from now until December - and in the foreseeable future, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain inactive. Of course, he also added a premise - if inflation continues to cool down. So, before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16. The most important thing is to look at today's non farm payroll and next week's CPI on the 11th (CPI will be more important than today's non farm payroll) Today's non farm payroll, if we want to move towards a bullish trend without raising interest rates, we hope to see a weak employment outlook (lower than expected) So if non farm cooperation continues, it is still possible to challenge above 82.7k in May. ------------ Yesterday, there were 4 waves released unilaterally in this wave .. The first two held back The last two couldn't resist being empty. (2 on the right side of Figure 1) The first SFP made was damaged When inserting 82.3k at the end, a larger wave was added. After eating TP, the remaining part was checked to see if the non-agricultural team decided whether to continue taking it. ------------ Today, the data at this position is still the final say . We can't have too many plans based on a wait-and-see approach .. Only 83k can be crouched at high altitude above, and there is a new wave of contract pending orders here. The SFP stacked with the May high can be considered as the last line of defense for bears. (Figure 2) If you stand firm at the high point in May, then switch structures at the daily level. The radical demand below is at 80k (there may be an opportunity today) Further down 79k, explore the position where the pressure turns into support, as well as a trading intensive interval within the entire top oscillation range And around 78k, there is a gap in the demand for real pending orders and a larger POC range. There are too many, we can only act according to the situation and data.