TraderS | 缺德道人|Sep 04, 2026 09:34
Actually, the market's ideal consensus for a rate hike in September has shifted to a hawkish pause—meaning no action in September, but Waller needs to sound hawkish or show hawkishness through the number of votes supporting a hike.
If this route is really taken, then tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls and next week's CPI need to push the rate hike probability back to at least 70%.
When pricing in this 20% probability gap, risk markets might take another dip, but the magnitude may not be as severe as during Waller's speech last week.
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