As the quote says, after Waller's speech yesterday, next week's CPI data will be the key factor in determining whether the Fed will raise rates at the 9/16 FOMC meeting. However, tonight's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data can't be overlooked either, as the anxious market continues to rely on macro data for confirmation. Currently, the market's expectations are: - Unemployment rate: 4.1% - Non-Farm Payrolls: 56,000 jobs So, if the final reported numbers show significantly higher job growth and a lower unemployment rate than expected, the probability of a rate hike might rebound to around 70%. If job growth is slightly above expectations and the unemployment rate matches expectations, the rate hike probability could rebound modestly to 60%. If job growth falls short of expectations and the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, the rate hike probability may drop further. If Non-Farm Payrolls continue the trend of significant downward revisions, then gold and U.S. Treasury yields may keep rising, but U.S. stocks and $BTC might first rise and then fall, pricing in recession risks. Assuming Waller is actually collaborating on expectation management, the logical sequence might look like this: 1. Waller raises the rate hike probability to 60%-70% ↓ 2. Waller pulls it back to around 50% before the blackout period, reducing one-sided crowding ↓ 3. Solid NFP performance restores the probability to around 60% ↓ 4. Hot PPI and CPI push the probability to 75%-90% ↓ 5. On September 16, a 25 basis point rate hike occurs, which wouldn't constitute a true "surprise attack." So, whether the Fed's actions are scripted or not will depend on tonight's NFP data. After the data is released, keep an eye on changes in CME's rate hike probability. @BITstocks_CN Buy U.S. stocks on BIT, with access to 10,000+ U.S. stocks and ETFs, real holdings, and dividend payouts.