Today, the real focus of the market is on tonight's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 PM. Earlier, the ADP small non-farm report already gave us a signal: 38K new jobs added in August, lower than the expected 47K and also below the previous 44K. Simply put, employment is starting to cool down. This is also why U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back from the intraday high of 4.82% to around 4.78%, and market expectations for a September rate hike have cooled as well. But here's the thing: ADP is just the warm-up. What really influences the Fed's decision is tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data. If the Non-Farm Payrolls continue to show weakness, it indicates the labor market is indeed slowing down, which would weaken the Fed's case for further rate hikes. Risk assets might breathe a sigh of relief. But if the Non-Farm Payrolls exceed expectations, especially if wages remain strong, then the market will start worrying again: Is inflation still not under control? Does the Fed need to stay hawkish? Will Treasury yields surge again? So tonight, it's not just about one employment number; it's about three key things: 1. Whether new job additions show a clear cooling trend; 2. Whether the unemployment rate continues to rise; 3. Whether wage growth remains sticky. Here’s my simple take: The market's biggest fear right now isn’t a slightly weaker economy, but rather “a still strong economy, sticky inflation, and high interest rates.” If employment cools down but doesn’t collapse, that’s actually the most comfortable scenario for the market. It would mean the soft landing is still on track, and the Fed has a reason to gradually pivot. Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls is the first key test for September’s market trends.