From this perspective, the market still overestimates the importance of non-agricultural activities. In fact, since July, non farm payroll has shifted from a directional variable to a tail variable, and the weight of macro pricing power is very low. A decrease in demand when the number of newly added jobs is less than 100000 is based on the historical background. In previous years or cycles, the overall labor force continued to increase every month, and the United States needed to constantly create new jobs to prevent the unemployment rate from rising. At present, the growth of labor supply is approaching stagnation. Assuming that there are only 10000 new job seekers per month and 30000 new positions are added by enterprises, the labor market is still tight, and there may even be zero growth. The unemployment rate can also remain stable. Due to insufficient labor supply, the importance of non-agricultural activities has begun to show a tail effect. Unless new additions, unemployment rates, and permanent unemployment occur together, this probability is currently relatively low. Tonight's non farm market is likely to weaken, and the Federal Reserve will use this opportunity to suspend the September interest rate hike. The US dollar will weaken and BTC will continue to rise a bit. As for whether it can go up, I tend to think it will be difficult in the short term. Non farm data is at most trading value for BTC, without breaking through value.