时光预言机i|Sep 04, 2026 07:20
Yesterday, Waller's dovish remarks suggested that if the upcoming August inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he leans toward keeping rates unchanged at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. This directly lowered the probability of a rate hike to 51.6%. Gold and #bitcoin:native rose in sync, with #bitcoin:native rebounding from 7.73k and hitting a high of 8.2k, breaking the previous high set on August 28.
At 8:30 PM tonight, the non-farm payroll data will be released, with expectations of an increase of around 55k–56k jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. If the data significantly misses expectations or comes with a rise in the unemployment rate, it could further lower the probability of a rate hike, benefiting gold and risk assets. However, if the data significantly exceeds expectations, it might reignite rate hike concerns, supporting the dollar and pressuring gold.
The non-farm payroll data will also directly impact the upcoming CPI. It all depends on how the market digests it. #bitcoin:native's current price has now reached the levels seen before the major drop in May this year. Whether it continues to break out or enters a pullback and consolidation phase will depend on the big data releases over the next few days.
That said, looking at ETF flows, it's pretty clear they’re betting on no rate hike in September. Yesterday alone, there was an inflow of $723 million into #bitcoin:native.
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