Where do the 12 FOMC voters of the Federal Reserve stand? Last night, Waller's speech was significant because he was one of the earlier members suggesting a potential rate hike in the near term. Now, he's publicly leaning towards 'supporting a pause if August inflation continues to improve,' which caused the market's pricing for a September rate hike to drop to about 48.4%, with the probability of holding steady at around 51.6%. This officially brings it back to a near 50-50 split, essentially breaking the previous balance with Waller's statement. Here's a breakdown of the latest positions of the 12 FOMC voters this year, categorized into five tiers based on the clarity of their public statements: 1) Three clear hawkish votes supporting an immediate rate hike (Harker, Kashkari, Logan), with Waller strongly leaning towards a hike; 2) Waller has now shifted the baseline back to holding steady (pause camp), making it a 1:1 ratio between the pause camp and the hawks; 3) Cook, Barr, Williams, and Powell form the true middle ground. Among them, Powell has been the most silent, with almost no public statements since stepping down as Chair. Ultimately, it all comes down to the specific non-farm payroll and inflation data: As mentioned earlier, tonight's August non-farm payrolls are likely to be weak; The core issue remains the inflation trend—ideally, inflation would come in significantly below expectations, allowing the Fed to pause, which the market would gladly accept; If inflation meets or slightly exceeds expectations, and Waller still opts to pause, the market might start worrying about credibility issues. Sponsored by @bitget_zh: 'Bitget Trade US Stocks: Instant Entry, Seamless Trading'.