The most common mistake at present is to think that the market has ended when you see a divergence at the top! I believe that a medium-term reversal has been established, but the risk of short-term peaking is also increasing. After the market started, Bitcoin: native broke through the long-term downward trend and the $60000- $66000 box, and can no longer be used as a regular bear market pullback. The problem occurred during the second impact above 82000. The MACD red bar has significantly shortened, RSI and KDJ high points have moved downwards, there is a potential divergence from the daily chart, OI continues to increase, and funding rates have turned positive, indicating that a large amount of leveraged funds have already caught up in the latter half of the rise. If spot buying cannot keep up, high volatility can easily turn into buying and selling. But a short-term correction does not mean the end of the medium-term market. In history, the probability of BTC continuing to rise after 4 weeks is about 85.7%, and after 12 weeks it is about 71.4%, after a weekly increase of over 20%. However, the median maximum drawdown in the following 12 weeks is also 14.5%. Calculated at $82300, the corresponding position is approximately $70300, although this number will change as the high point moves up! On September 3rd, the net inflow of spot ETFs was about 731 million US dollars, indicating that institutions are still taking over, but the inflow and outflow of funds have fluctuated before, and have not reached the level of continuous inventory without considering prices. The macro environment is temporarily favorable, with the rebound of US stocks and the decline of US bond yields providing support for BTC; Oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation data may once again suppress risk appetite. Next, we will only look at three positions: $80000: Short term Strong/Weak Boundary $78000: Top Deviation Confirmation Level $70000- $74000: Mid term retracement zone Hold on to $80000 and break through $82300-84000 in bulk. The top divergence will be resolved, and we will first look at $85000. Otherwise, if it falls below $78000, we will first look at $74000-76000; If the pullback continues to deepen, look around $70000. Only when it falls back to the original range of $65000-66000 can the mid-term reversal logic be considered invalid. So above $80000, I won't chase too much, nor will I rush to the top just because there is a divergence. At most, not catching up will result in less profit. In order to recover the regret of being short, I will bravely chase after the rise, which is the easiest way to lose real money.