Japan's rate hike has already been priced in, but the risk lies beyond September. The Bank of Japan is increasingly leaning toward raising rates by 25 basis points at the policy meeting ending on September 18, lifting the policy rate from 1% to 1.25%. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point hike remains low. Japan's economy is currently in line with the central bank's previous forecasts, with no significant changes warranting aggressive rate hikes. However, the weak yen, rising oil prices, and accelerating service inflation are making it harder for the Bank of Japan to remain patient. If the September rate hike happens, it will be just three months since the last one, marking the shortest interval between hikes since Kazuo Ueda took office as BOJ Governor in April 2023. The market has already made extensive preparations for this hike, so a 25-basis-point move itself might not cause much shock. On the contrary, a sudden pause by the BOJ could trigger significant volatility in the yen, Japanese government bonds, and global markets. Japan's 10-year government bond yield has already surpassed 3%, increasing the appeal of domestic bonds. If the BOJ hints at further action in October or December, risks such as Japanese capital repatriation, shrinking yen carry trades, and declining global liquidity could emerge. For U.S. stocks and Bitcoin, Japan entering a faster rate hike cycle could have a bigger impact than this single hike. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one place for trading.