Murphy|Sep 04, 2026 01:31
Can we still buy $BTC at $63K-$65K?
Before answering this question, I want to show you all some data—or rather, an interesting phenomenon:
According to the 'Cost Distribution Heatmap,' between 8/4 and 8/18, there was a sudden and intense turnover of short-term chips (Figure 1, red zone) in the price range of $63K-$65K.
Back in June-July, $BTC lingered at the same price range for a long time, but we didn’t see a similar situation then.
After this period of intense turnover, there was an abrupt and rapid price surge, with no pauses in between.
It’s clear that before the surge, large funds had already accelerated their accumulation in this price range.
It’s hard not to suspect that this was a premeditated move.
Interestingly, when we reviewed data from January 2022, we saw the same pattern (Figure 2).
Quick accumulation, rapid surge, leaving no time to react!
In other words, the red zone is very likely the cost range where the major players accumulated their chips.
By 'major players,' I don’t mean a single person or institution, but rather a group of 'smart money'—those with resources, connections, and the ability to foresee market trends.
I looked into it, and currently, wallets holding 100-1K and 1K-10K $BTC have an average cost basis between $61K-$67K (Figure 3).
This aligns perfectly with the price range of intense turnover we observed before the surge.
At this point, I think most of you already have the answer.
Yes! Since there was no time to react, it’s highly unlikely that there will be a pullback, giving others the chance to buy at the major players’ cost basis.
This might be a conclusion that leaves some of you feeling regretful—unless there’s an unforeseen event or systemic crisis.
But we all know the probability of that is low.
So, instead of betting on a low-probability event, why not seize the moment?
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