Let's continue to delve deeper into the impact of Waller's speech. First of all, this is the last effective statement before the FOMC meeting quiets down, pushing the high probability of interest rate hikes brought about by Walsh's speech to the point where interest rates will not be raised unless CPI is very hot. In this way, the risk brought by the increase in the probability of interest rate hikes last week has been eaten back by the market decline. But what we cannot determine now is whether Waller's speech is a personal opinion or a statement on behalf of the committee. It cannot be determined whether this is intentional dovish expectation management to undermine market consensus on interest rate hikes, or whether the probability of interest rate hikes has risen too quickly and needs to be temporarily cooled down. The upcoming big non farm payroll data on Friday will further point out the direction for the market fog, but the highlight still lies in the CPI on September 11th. If the big non farm payroll data continues the previous trend of labor market cooling, it will give a good step for September not to raise interest rates, and if this data reveals a signal of high wages, it will give the Federal Reserve a reason to raise interest rates to suppress inflation. Going back to the current probability of CME interest rate increase, it is really hard to say whether it is the upper body of the US team or Wang Dun's five to five talisman that plays a role (play naughty, cross out It is widely believed in the market that the Federal Reserve will comply with market expectations when there is a 70-90% probability of interest rate hikes/cuts, but in fact, there have been many exceptions/extreme swings near the decision window in recent years. For example, in December 2025, when Powell said at the end of October that a rate cut in December was "far from a certainty," coupled with the lack of data on the government shutdown at the time, a group of local Fed chairmen took turns to raise their hawks, and the probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 90% to about 30%. The market was extremely panicked, and the pie continued to fall below psychological expectations. Until November 21st, when New York Fed President Williams spoke out and said "there is still room for further adjustment in the near future," the probability of interest rate cuts rebounded to 70% on the same day, and then Waller continued to follow up a few days later, ultimately entering the FOMC meeting with a probability of over 80%. On December 10th, there was a 25 basis point interest rate cut with three opposing votes, showing hawkishness. On July 30th, 2025, the Federal Reserve did not release a clear signal of a September interest rate cut, and the CME showed that the probability of a September interest rate cut had dropped from about 65% the day before to 46%. Subsequently, the non farm payroll on August 1st fell significantly short of expectations, and the previous value was significantly revised down, causing the probability of interest rate cuts to jump from 38% to 81% in a day. After Powell further emphasized the risk of employment decline at the end of August, the probability rose to about 87%, and ultimately the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17th. The most similar time to the current 55% interest rate cut is in September 2024, when the market had no objections to the rate cut. The divergence focused on whether to cut by 50BP or 25BP. The expectation of a 50BP rate cut in the market fluctuated greatly with the large non farm payroll and CPI data fluctuating between 15% and 50%. It was only near the decision-making stage of the meeting that Nick raised the interest rate to around 60% and ultimately cut it by 50BP. In short, we need to closely monitor the non farm payroll and CPI to adjust our expectations and positions at any time in the future. @BITstocks_CN buys US stocks on BIT, with over 10000 US stocks and ETFs, holding real positions and enjoying dividends.