Phyrex|9月 03, 2026 16:22
I hope Trump can smooth the "Trump Strait". Today, I made up the WTI of $92.5 and Brent of $97. If I continue, I will continue to make up the WTI of $97 and Brent of $102. Please note that the margin should be more than $120. If the war becomes more intense, perhaps it will continue to escalate, so be prepared for the worst.
I still don't think there's anything wrong with short selling oil. The current oil prices already include high war and Hormuz risk premiums. For every additional round played between the United States and Iran, short-term gains may continue, but as long as cross-strait traffic begins to stabilize and recover, even opening up Hormuz to some countries will cause the market to re price.
Moreover, the higher the oil price, the greater the damage to global demand, and the heavier the pressure of gasoline prices and inflation in the United States. This will increase the motivation for countries to release reserves, seek alternative supplies, and push for the end of wars. Trump can withstand high oil prices for a short time, but it is difficult to accept oil close to or even more than $100 for a long time, so it is still in the interests of the United States and even the world to let Hormuz reopen.
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