Fed gov Chris Waller's posture hasn't fundamentally changed since July, but the tilt has, from worried and leaning toward tightening back then to tentatively encouraged and leaning toward holding today. It will come down to the August inflation readings. His reaction function for Sept 15-16 is explicit: Continued progress on 2% = hold. Hot August print = "I would consider a rate hike.” The key paragraph is here: “Recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation. If this continues in the data due over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting. But there continues to be considerable uncertainty about how military conflicts, trade policy, and artificial intelligence will affect prices and economic activity. If the incoming data for August show this improvement has been fleeting, then it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate when the FOMC meets on September 15 and 16.”(Nick Timiraos)