Garrett Jin: If BTC stands at $82500 and then steps back to hold on to $80000, it can be considered as digesting sensitive selling According to BlockBeats, on September 3rd, Garrett Jin, the agent of BTC OG Insider Whale, released a market analysis stating that the $76600 marked as a key downside level last week played a role this week. Bitcoin retreated to near this support before the opening of the US stock market, but eventually stabilized and returned above $77000. The cost base map shows that a large amount of new supply has been generated between $75000 and $80000, providing the market with a more solid floor support than during the first round of bearish pressure. The current largest visible cost base cluster is located in the range of $80000 to $82500. If the price exceeds 78600 to 79000 US dollars, it will enter the upper part of the current range, but the harder test is between 80000 and 82500 US dollars. If the daily closing price reaches $82500 and then retraces to the $80000 range, it can be considered as effectively digesting price sensitive selling. In terms of funds, the US spot ETF recorded a net inflow of about $3.5 billion in August, which turned into two-way flow at the beginning of September. On Tuesday, the net outflow was about $237 million, and the activity of retail investors cooled down synchronously. Garrett Jin stated that only when the daily closing price falls below $76600 and the ETF fund flow, Coinbase premium, and 7-day average realized profit and loss all weaken simultaneously, will it be considered a true warning signal, and before that, it will not directly short support. Macro pressure is becoming the core contradiction in the market. The oil price has returned to around $95, the 10-year US Treasury bond has broken through 4.8%, and the market's pricing for the Fed's September rate hike has risen to about 70%. The significance of Bitcoin holding $76600 in this round of macro shocks lies in providing good evidence that recent spot demand is not purely bearish. Friday's non farm payroll report will be the next key test: if the data is strong and the logic of interest rate hikes strengthens, $76600 may be tested again; If the data is weak and Bitcoin still cannot recover $79000, it indicates that spot demand may be losing momentum due to macroeconomic external factors. Garrett Jin maintains his optimistic view towards the end of the year, stating that AI profits have not declined, AI spending is still advancing, and there is a real channel for Bitcoin allocation. However, the short-term path highly depends on whether interest rates can stop the current accelerated upward trend. Risk assets can withstand high interest rates, but cannot withstand the rising yields every week. [Original link]