BitUnix analyst: CPI key to September interest rate hike, high interest rate pressure extends to global bond markets and risk assets BlockBeats News: On September 3rd, Bank of America's latest assessment showed that although the August non farm payroll report released on Friday will affect expectations of interest rate hikes, it will be difficult to determine the Fed's September policy alone unless there is a significant deterioration in employment data. The real key is still the CPI released on September 11th. This means that the recent rapid repricing of the probability of interest rate hikes in the market is no longer just about whether the job market cools down, but whether inflation can convince the Federal Reserve that high interest rate policies are still necessary. This policy expectation is directly reflected in the bond market. The high long-term yields in the United States, coupled with the simultaneous rise in bond yields of major economies such as Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom, indicate that high interest rate pressures are extending from a single central bank policy to the combined effects of global fiscal deficits, debt supply, and funding costs. For stocks and cryptocurrencies, the sustained high long-term returns mean that the discount rate and cost of capital are still rising. Even if the market maintains expectations for AI and economic growth, it must face the reality of compressed valuation space; Gold is also suppressed by the rise in the US dollar and real interest rates in the short term, but if the increase in yields reflects more fiscal and sovereign credit risks, its safe haven nature may regain support. On the Japanese side, the decision of the Bank of Japan on September 18th and the risk of intervention around 160 USD/JPY have also brought additional variables to global capital allocation. If the Bank of Japan further raises interest rates, the narrowing of the Japan US interest rate differential may increase the incentive for Japanese funds to flow back into the country; And GPIF's recent re examination of asset allocation, coupled with Japan's domestic bond yields rising to multi-year highs, may also cause some funds to reassess the allocation ratio of overseas bonds to stocks. This is not just a matter of the Japanese yen, but more likely to generate spillover effects on the funding side through the global bond market. Therefore, what is worth observing in September is not a single data, but whether US inflation, Japanese monetary policy, and global bond supply and demand simultaneously push up the cost of funds. If CPI remains sticky, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates may remain high, and the strength of US bond yields and the US dollar will continue to limit overvalued assets; On the contrary, if inflation significantly cools down, a decline in long-term yields will help alleviate valuation pressure on the stock and cryptocurrency markets. For the market, the real core issue is shifting from 'when will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates' to whether global funds have entered a new stage of high cost and renewed search for higher risk-free returns.