The two most important data forecasts for September: weak non farm payroll but possibly not weak CPI. Last night's ADP small non farm payroll data was lower than expected, boosting market confidence to some extent. When communicating with 168X on Monday night, https://(x.com)/168x_portal/status/209462858585873326584? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A talked about: The labor market is likely to continue to weaken, with market expectations of 50000 new jobs in August. The actual results announced on Friday are likely to be lower than expected, which boosts short-term confidence. But the key point is that the August inflation data to be released next Friday is likely to be strong, and the core is still oil prices. Two reasons: 1) Looking at Truflation's real-time inflation data monitoring, it can be seen that there was a clear upward rebound trend from late July to August; 2) According to data from the US Energy Administration EIA and the American Automobile Association AAA, retail prices of gasoline and diesel in the United States remained high overall in August, with gasoline reaching its most expensive August level on record, while diesel prices rose significantly during the month and approached historical highs. Gasoline prices: The official monthly average for EIA is about $4.058 (EIA), while the monthly average tracked by AAA is about $4.074. In August, the national average price exceeded $4 every day, setting a historical record for the first time. Diesel prices: EIA monthly average of approximately $5.46 (BTS data). Diesel fuel saw a significant increase in mid to late August (about 40 cents), with a slight decline at the end of the month, but still significantly higher than the July level (BTS average price of $4.96 in July), with a year-on-year increase of about 46-51%. Approaching the historical high of around $5.81 in June 2022. The main driving factors include the core of the Middle East conflict or the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Ukraine's attacks on Russian refining facilities leading to a global shortage of refined oil supply. All of this indicates that the inflation trend in August may not be as favorable. This involves the reaction function problem mentioned in Walsh's speech last week. Previously, here https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2093513119184425337? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has talked about: "It is necessary to be certain that underlying inflation is moving towards the target, clearly and at a sufficient speed. Otherwise, we still have work to do. Literally speaking, it is not enough for inflation to fall back, and the speed of decline needs to be fast enough. So if inflation recurs, it is not as clear and sufficient to move towards the target as he said. At that time, the market will still worry and panic. Returning to the trading level: If the non farm payroll falls short of expectations, it will naturally boost confidence and lead to a rebound. But CPI data may bring about fluctuations and adjustments again. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'