Arthur Hayes|Sep 03, 2026 01:26
"Atencion" is an essay about why the EURJPY will dump and herald a new leg up on global money printing.
It’s Friday in the deep Patagonian winter, and I’m doing what I do: hiking and skiing in the backcountry. The yearly Santa Rosa storm dumped over a meter of snow in the alpine, but it took colder temperatures and a few days for the snowpack to settle, thus reducing the avalanche risk. The cloud level rose high enough that visibility allowed one lap on a south facing bowl. In the Southern Hemisphere, the south face receives the least amount of sunlight and which means the best powder. It’s not Jaypow, but it’s the best I’m going to get in August.
This is a special Friday for financial markets as Fed chairperson Warsh the Weasel speaks in another one of my favorite ski towns, Jackson Hole … Corbet’s anyone? But I’m locked in and present because the snowpack is still touchy and I’m mentally reviewing my ski out path should I trigger a slide. A few moments prior, my guide and I discussed the aspect we would ski to reduce the angle and risk of avalanche.
I prefer to spend my time in the snow and surf rather than “monitoring the situation.” But as the CIO of my family office, I still have to make money somehow. Skiing is an expensive sport. Because of my lifestyle, I must concentrate my attention on one or two prices to follow, which inform whether the pace of fiat liquidity injection grows or slows. Based on these inputs, I’ll swing the portfolio long or flat on a dime; I never short. These metrics change over time, and in this essay I want to explain why my current macro North Star is the euro-yen exchange rate, or EURJPY.
Read the full essay on Substack: cryptohayes(Arthur Hayes)
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