CITIC Securities predicts that US interest rates will remain unchanged in September, with controllable risks of upward inflation

CITIC Securities stated that the US CPI rose by 0.1% month on month in July, and the core CPI rose by 0.2% month on month, both in line with expectations. The rebound of core commodities and core services has driven a slight increase in CPI, while energy prices have fallen for two consecutive months, offsetting some upward pressure. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI continued to slow down in July. The conflict between the United States and Iran brings uncertainty, but the overall inflation risk in the United States is controllable. CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in September. AI interpretation: The inflation data performance meets market expectations, and the moderate fluctuations in core indicators confirm that price pressures are within a controllable range. The continuous decline in energy prices effectively offsets the rise in service industry costs, and the overall inflation environment remains stable. The Federal Reserve lacks urgent reasons for further interest rate hikes in the current economic context, and maintaining interest rates unchanged is an inevitable choice for policy-making. This decision-making path will guide market expectations back to rationality and leave an observation window for subsequent monetary policy adjustments.