The biggest factor affecting Bitcoin's price movement this week is Friday's non-farm payroll data. Let’s take a forward-looking look at the two possible outcomes of this data. Based on market expectations, leading indicators, and the policy backdrop, Friday’s non-farm payroll data is more like a “double-edged sword” for $BTC’s direction—it’s hard to define it simply as bearish or bullish. The market’s attitude toward this data will be very conflicted, as both overly strong and overly weak results could bring risks. Mainstream market expectation: Likely to be moderately weak Currently, the market’s consensus for August non-farm payrolls is an increase of 55,000 to 80,000 jobs. This number isn’t particularly strong, and cooling signals can be seen from two key leading indicators: - ADP “mini non-farm” fell sharply below expectations: August ADP payrolls increased by only 38,000, far below the expected 47,000, marking the lowest level since January this year. This casts a shadow over the non-farm payroll data. - July data was significantly revised downward: July non-farm payrolls were reduced by 23,000, and combined revisions for May and June totaled 103,000 downward. This suggests that the labor market’s previous weakness may have been more severe than initially observed. If the non-farm payroll data falls between 55,000 and 80,000, it would align with the “moderate cooling” expectation. The Fed might interpret this as a signal of an orderly slowdown in the labor market, which wouldn’t drastically alter the 58% probability of a rate hike in September. ⚖️ Two potential “unexpected” scenarios If the data deviates significantly from expectations, the market reaction will be very direct: **Scenario 1:** Data falls below expectations (e.g., below 30,000–50,000). In the short term, this could be considered “bullish.” It would reinforce the narrative of a rapidly deteriorating labor market, potentially weakening September rate hike expectations and giving $BTC a brief breather and momentum to test $80K. However, if the market starts worrying about an economic recession, the rebound might be limited. After the bounce, I estimate Bitcoin’s price will likely still face downward adjustments. **Scenario 2:** Data exceeds expectations (e.g., approaches or surpasses 80,000). This would be “bearish” for $BTC. It would validate Walsh’s view that “employment remains strong,” and the already over 55% probability of a September rate hike could climb further, driving U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher. This would directly pressure $BTC, increasing the risk of testing $75K–$76K or even $73,500. Reminder: A Bitcoin dip could be a buying opportunity! My core judgment The Fed’s current policy focus remains on controlling inflation. As long as employment data doesn’t show a “cliff-like decline,” it’s unlikely to halt the pace of rate hikes. Therefore, non-farm payroll data that aligns with expectations may not serve as a clear catalyst for $BTC to break out of its current stalemate.