Three dimensional integrated trading system | BTC morning market analysis The current price of BTC is around 77.3K, and before the release of non farm payroll data, the price formed a narrow range oscillation in the 77K-77.6K range. The overall market pressure is below 77.6K, and the bearish suppression pattern has not changed. The current market is very tough! Let's first look at the quantity and data before making a decision. (1) Strength of long and short positions The long position of 4H can continue to shrink, and the trading volume is significantly insufficient. The daily trading volume has significantly fallen from the peak on August 25th, and the market is waiting for non farm data, lacking the willingness to actively push up. Short positions are also not strong, and the overall situation is in a "long short double weak" state. (2) Quantity, price, and structure BTC has fallen below the key support range of 77400-77650, and if it cannot quickly recover, it will face deeper adjustment pressure. The current rebound strength is limited, and the structure is arranged in a downward shift from high points to short positions. (3) On chain data In the past week, approximately 3700 BTC were sent to the exchange, indicating potential selling pressure due to exchange deposits. Spot CVD has decreased from+280 million to -67.2 million, and seller pressure has overwhelmed buyers. In terms of ETFs, the net outflow on September 1st was approximately $236 million, while BlackRock IBIT had a daily outflow of approximately $201 million. Although there have been giant whales attracting funds, the bull market has not yet been fully confirmed, and the rebound lacks sustained confirmation of spot flow. (4) Macro fundamentals ADP added only 38000 new non farm workers, lower than the expected 47000, indicating weak employment data. But the probability of a rate hike in September is still as high as 57.5%, indicating a stagnant pricing logic in the market. Friday off farm is the biggest variable of the week. Expected to add approximately 55000-65000 people, and if it falls below 30000, it may drive a rebound test of 79K-80K; If it exceeds expectations, the price may come under further pressure, and support will be tested. If it falls below, we look towards 75K-76K or even 73500. （5） Xiaolong's core judgment Now the price rise and fall are not awesome and sustainable. Both sides are waiting for Friday's non farm data. However, the buying power is weakening, and the probability of a subsequent decline and correction is higher. 73500 is still the highest probability callback target, but it needs to be triggered by non farm bearish factors. 77K is a short-term watershed, if it falls below, then look at 75K-76K; Hold on and maintain high volatility. It is not recommended to go long before the data is released on Friday.