Phyrex|Sep 02, 2026 13:02
The impact of Japan's 10-year treasury bond exceeding 3% on US stocks and cryptocurrency
Japan's 10-year treasury bond bond yield officially stood at 3%, which was close to the level not seen in 30 years. I think the impact of this matter on the US market and cryptocurrency may gradually amplify.
In the past, the interest rate in Japan was very low, and leaving money in Japan could hardly earn any interest. Therefore, many Japanese banks, insurance companies and large investment institutions would exchange their money into dollars to buy US treasury bond bonds. Now that Japan's own 10-year treasury bond can yield 3%, many funds will start to consider whether it is more cost-effective to keep money directly in Japan.
Japan is also one of the largest overseas buyers of US treasury bond bonds. If Japanese institutions buy less US Treasury bonds in the future, and even retrieve some of the money already placed in the US, a group of long-term buyers of US Treasury bonds will be lost. US bond prices are prone to decline, and yields are more difficult to fall back. The cost of borrowing for American companies will remain high, and technology stocks with higher prices in the stock market will also face greater pressure.
In the past, many funds would borrow Japanese yen at a very low interest rate, and then use the money to buy US stocks, US treasury bond bonds, Bitcoin and other assets. As long as Japanese interest rates are low enough, this approach is very cost-effective. Now that Japan's 10-year treasury bond has reached 3%, and the Bank of Japan is also continuing to raise interest rates, the cost of borrowing yen will become higher and higher.
If Japan continues to raise interest rates in the future, the problem will be even bigger. People who used to borrow Japanese yen to buy overseas assets would need to spend more dollars to exchange for the same amount of Japanese yen when repaying the money. This may result in investors selling a portion of US stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies to exchange the money back for Japanese yen to repay loans.
Also, it depends on the exchange rate of the Japanese yen. If the Japanese yen remains weak even after interest rates rise, the impact will be more on Japanese funds reducing their purchases of overseas assets. However, if the yen starts to appreciate rapidly, the problem will become even more complicated. Not only has the cost of borrowing increased, but more US dollars are also needed to exchange for Japanese yen to repay debts, making it easier to choose to sell the assets in hand.
That is to say, the current financial changes in Japan are bearish for the US stock market and cryptocurrency. If combined with the Fed's interest rate hike, it is equivalent to both Japan and the US raising their funding costs, which will have a more direct impact on the market. If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, at least it will not continue to increase pressure. If it enters a rate cut and US bond yields also decline, it is possible to offset some of the impact of Japan's interest rate hike.
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