What the market is really watching now is not whether the US stock market will rise or not today, but whether the Federal Reserve will put "interest rate hikes" back on the table. After Walsh's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on August 28th, market expectations for a rate hike in September have significantly increased. This change is very important. Because once the market starts to reprice and raise interest rates, the impact is not on a single stock, but on the entire asset chain: The yield of US bonds will move first, The US dollar will react accordingly, Gold BTC、 Technology stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares will all be revalued by funds. The next few key points to focus on: On September 4th, the non farm payroll for August in the United States. If employment remains strong, it indicates that the economy can still withstand high interest rates, and the market will continue to worry about the Federal Reserve's hawkishness. On September 11th, the US August CPI and core CPI. This is the most crucial inflation verification. If inflation stickiness persists, the expectation of interest rate cuts will be further suppressed. On September 17th, FOMC interest rate decision, press conference, and economic forecast. The true determinant of market sentiment is often not whether to add or not, but rather the dot matrix and what Powell says. So during this period, don't just focus on the candlestick. Many times, price fluctuations are only superficial, and behind them is a rearrangement of interest rate expectations. My understanding is simple: If employment is strong and inflation is sticky, the Federal Reserve has no reason to loosen too quickly; If the data starts to weaken, the market will re trade and cut interest rates. The biggest variable in September is not the rise or fall of a certain day, but whether the market is betting on "economic resilience" or "policy shift". Short term trading can be noisy, but what really matters is the data.