时光预言机i
时光预言机i|Sep 02, 2026 05:18
On September 9, the U.S. stock market began repurchasing Treasury bonds, raising the single repurchase limit from $2 billion to $4 billion, effective until November 4. Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.79%–4.81%, and the 30-year yield is around 5.27%–5.28%, close to or back to pre-announcement levels. This scale is still relatively small compared to the entire Treasury market (over $40 trillion) and the quarterly issuance of long-term bonds. The original plan for long-term repurchases from September 9 to November 4 had a cap of about $14 billion, and doubling it adds an extra $14 billion. The increased repurchases on September 9 provide marginal support and improve liquidity for long-term U.S. Treasuries. In the short term, it may ease upward pressure on yields, benefiting risk assets and gold. However, personally, I think its impact on the current market is limited. The more volatile the situation, the more you need to stay calm. Rising oil prices, falling U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto don’t necessarily mean capital is fleeing—it’s just a shift to a more cautious strategy for risk aversion. You can see this in the crypto space, where the high volatility of various altcoins is still driving ecosystem growth. So, I think shorting is fine, but it must be short-term. Expecting a massive drop of thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars in one go is very difficult in the current market. The constant back-and-forth will shake you out.
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