3D Integrated Trading System | Latest BTC Market Trends at Night ----BTC's narrow range oscillation is gaining momentum, with multiple signals indicating that a change is imminent! The BTC market on Tuesday is still quite sluggish, like boiling a frog in warm water. Is it the frog that is cooked or the frog that jumps out on its own? Let's first look at the following logical analysis: (1) Strength of long and short positions The 4-hour long position is still weak and decreasing, with significantly insufficient trading volume. The market is in a state of consolidation rather than an upward trend, lacking sustained upward momentum. The daily trading volume has significantly decreased compared to the peak of over 80000 on August 25th, with a high level of volume contraction and price stagnation, and the signal of volume price divergence continues. In terms of short positions, the volume of short positions is also relatively weak, lacking sustained aggressiveness. The overall situation is in a stalemate of both long and short positions. (2) Quantity, price, and structure BTC constructs a box oscillation in the range of 77000-79500, with the high and low points gradually converging. The price of 77000 for both pins has been withdrawn. 79000-79500 is a key resistance zone at the 4H level, where the price rebound is clearly hindered. The rebound momentum above 78500 has weakened, and during the high-level sideways process, the low point has tentatively shifted downwards, with the direction unclear. The daily chart is still in a pullback structure after reaching a high of 81500. 72000-74400 is a key support zone at the daily level, and holding it will result in a complete medium-term bullish structure; If lost, the structure after breakthrough will significantly deteriorate. (3) On chain data ETFs resumed net inflows of $217 million on Monday, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $206 million, reversing Friday's $202 million outflow. The direction of ETF funds is still positive, but weekly inflows have significantly decreased compared to the previous week, and marginal buying is weakening. Glassnode data shows that spot CVD has turned negative (from+280 million to -67.2 million), and selling pressure in the spot market is beginning to overwhelm buying. The spot trading volume decreased by 29.3%, and the participation rate significantly decreased. Futures OI increased by 2.4% to $36.7 billion, while funding rates decreased by 21.9%. Leveraged long positions are retreating, but open contracts remain above the high statistical range. Giant Whale continues to attract funds, with a group of 100-1000 BTC holders increasing their holdings by 73300 in 60 days, reaching a new high since April 21st. The core contradiction on the chain: ETFs and whales are buying, but selling pressure is accumulating in the spot market, leveraged bulls are retreating, and the two forces are hedging. (4) Macro fundamentals Friday's non farm payroll is the biggest macro variable of the week. In July, the non farm payroll saw a sudden drop of 23000, with a total decrease of 103000 from May to June, indicating weaker employment momentum than previously estimated. The non farm payroll forecast for August is expected to increase by about 55000-65000 people, with an expected unemployment rate of about 4.1%. After Walsh's speech, the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 57.5%. If it were not for the agricultural sector exceeding expectations, it may further push up the expectation of a rate hike; If the data is weak, the probability of interest rate hikes may decrease. The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds has risen to 4.29%, and the US dollar has rebounded to around 99.7, indicating ongoing macroeconomic pressure. （5） Xiaolong's core judgment The ability of long and short positions to decrease and daily trading volume to shrink, price fluctuations to narrow and structure to converge, coupled with Friday's upcoming non farm payroll data as a catalyst, the probability of Bitcoin changing course this week is increasing! If the non farm payroll falls below expectations, BTC may rebound and test 80000, but the rebound will also be difficult to break through 82K. After the rebound, it will still have to continue to decline and make a correction; If it exceeds expectations, the 77000 support will face a test, and if it falls below, it will look towards 75000-76000 or even 73500. 73500 is still the highest probability callback target, but it needs to be triggered by non farm bearish factors. Finally, regardless of how long positions such as ETF institutions and long-term holders struggle, the price of Bitcoin is likely to decline and rebound in the future. The start of a bull market is not achieved overnight, it requires a correction to confirm the bottom price.