**[RaboResearch: Oil Prices Continue to Rise, Yet Long-Term Inflation Expectations Grow Increasingly "Insensitive"]** Golden Finance reports that RaboResearch has pointed out that while recent energy prices continue to rise, the 5-year forward inflation expectations in the U.S. and Europe remain largely aligned with central bank targets. The correlation between energy prices and long-term inflation pricing is weakening, and the market is still willing to believe that central banks can anchor long-term inflation. There is another explanation for this divergence. Long-term inflation expectations may be increasingly dominated by central bank credibility, fiscal policy, and institutional risks, with the weight of short-term oil price shocks diminishing as a result. RaboResearch specifically highlighted the risk of "fiscal dominance": if the market begins to doubt the ability of central banks to independently control inflation, long-term inflation pricing could undergo a sudden institutional revaluation, and such changes typically do not occur in a linear fashion. For the market, the current stability of 5y5y remains a positive signal of policy credibility. However, if energy prices remain elevated and fiscal risks rise simultaneously, whether long-term inflation expectations and term premiums continue to "dull" will become a key observation point. At that time, the response of long-term U.S. Treasury yields to oil prices and inflation shocks may better reflect whether the market still believes in the inflation anchor than the monthly CPI itself. (Jin10)