The Nasdaq is currently fluctuating around 30,000, but what really needs attention is that after several attempts to break 30,000, there hasn’t been any significant inflow of new funds. From the trend, the highs are consistently moving lower, and the price is once again being suppressed by the descending trendline of the rounded top. The rounded top hasn’t fully formed yet, but the market has already shifted from a unilateral uptrend to high-level consolidation. September is likely to determine the medium-term direction ahead. The September FOMC meeting isn’t about rate cuts, but whether rates will be hiked or held steady. After Waller’s hawkish remarks, expectations for a rate hike have clearly intensified. If employment data comes in strong, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to rise, putting further pressure on tech stock valuations. If employment cools moderately and inflation also eases, the Fed might hold steady, giving the market room for recovery. However, if employment suddenly deteriorates, the positive impact of stable rates might not support the stock market, and funds could shift to pricing in a recession. The external environment isn’t looking easy either. The U.S.-Iran conflict remains volatile, oil prices are back at high levels, making it even harder for inflation to cool down, and the Fed’s room to turn dovish will also be limited. So, my baseline view for the Nasdaq in September is a weak consolidation. The 29,700 to 30,100 range is the main resistance zone. If it can’t break through with strong volume, any rebound here is better suited for reducing positions rather than chasing gains. If it breaks below 29,000, the next target is 28,500. A daily close below 28,500 with strong volume would further confirm the rounded top, with downside targets at 28,000 and around 27,200. Conversely, only by reclaiming 30,100 with strong support can the top risk ease, giving the index a chance to challenge 30,900 again. For September, focus on defense first, but there’s no need to preemptively bet on a crash. Whether the pattern looks like a top isn’t the key—what matters is if rebounds lack volume and support levels are lost. That’s the real signal to turn bearish.