Murphy
Murphy|9月 01, 2026 04:46
Jiajia @ Jiajia_oKX, let me talk about this topic: If I had 100wu on OKX, how would I allocate funds and create an investment framework from now on. My first reaction was: Soha BTC! But If I hadn't built a warehouse in 6w before, I wouldn't be buying all 100w here now. Instead, there will be a considerable amount of funds waiting to be withdrawn. After experiencing a rapid rally, momentum has clearly deviated from the mean, and there are signs of cooling in trading activity and active buying, as reflected in our tweet data a few days ago. And currently, the upper 8.1w-8.6w is a clear supply/derivative pressure band, while the lower 7w is the key cost support level for STH, and the huge chip peak of 6.3w is still present. Because even if we step out of the bear market and enter the bear bull transition period now, the time span during this period will not be very short (prices will rise rapidly, taking time to digest profitable chips), and I personally expect it to be 6 months or even more. So, I will stack the "dual currency win, spot grid" as a tool to enforce buying and selling discipline in these price bands. The overall framework is roughly as follows: bottom position+mobile position+revenue enhancement The specific thoughts are as follows: 1. Core spot goods (50%) Buy half now, and place a pyramid limit order for the other half between 7.6w-6.6w. The lower the price, the more you buy. 2. Fixed investment (20%) Run for 6 months without considering the price. The function of fixed investment is to eliminate timing errors and complement limit orders. 3. Double Coin Win (10%) The essence is to sell options for premium, buy low with USDT, and set the exercise price between 6.8w-7.2w. I originally intended to place an order to receive the goods, but if I don't have the option, I'll take it for free and annualize it. Exercising the option is equivalent to buying at a discount. 4. Spot grid (10%) The typical feature of the transition period is wide oscillations, and the grid eats this period. The interval reference is around 6.8w-8.8w. But we have to accept its two failure modes: falling below the lower edge becomes a full position within the range, and rising above the upper edge becomes a bearish trend. 5. Stable coin reserve (10%) Converted to USDG, with an annualized rate of 4.1%; You can also participate in flash earning activities to raise funds; In short, this money only corresponds to one triggering scenario: the appearance of another surrender signal. Summary: I personally think that this framework belongs to the category of 'neutral to conservative', with a probability of building up to 80% of positions after 6 months (which is probably less than). For spot pending orders that have not been received, as well as dual currency wins, the "waiting funds" in the spot grid have not been used up. It is necessary to dynamically adjust the range upward or downward based on the current chip structure, cost basis, support, and pressure bands. So every waiting type fund should have an expiration date from the day it is established, and a new decision should be made upon expiration, without automatic renewal.
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