Last night at 168X, we had a detailed discussion on many topics such as "AI's second growth engine, CSP value reshaping and Crypto supply side reform, recent market trends", which was also a concentrated summary of our thoughts in the past two months. Sort out the key points: 1. There is no problem with the demand for AI, it is under macro pressure. Downstream demand is very strong (data centers are fully loaded as soon as they go online), but oil prices, fiscal deficits, and large-scale bond issuances by technology companies have pushed up long-term yields, and the market has entered a "valuation friction zone". It is difficult to see a trend surge in yields before they clearly fall back; 2. Long term bond yield has three legs: oil price, deficit treasury bond issuance, and AI issuance. The 10-year US Treasury bond must first fall below 4.6% (around 30 to 5%) before macroeconomic repression can truly ease, making it easier for AI and semiconductor assets to emerge. But if the yield of long-term bonds continues to rise, the short-term pressure on the market will also increase, and it will be difficult for the market to hold on above 4.9% for USD10Y; 3. The central bank's annual meeting is biased towards hawks, but it still believes that there is a high probability of holding its fire in September. Jackson Hole's speech is tough on inflation; However, in reality, US consumption was average and non farm payroll was weak in August, and with no conclusions from the five working groups, the interest rate trend in September is neither increasing nor decreasing. The risk is that the CPI in August may not be as good, and Truflation's real-time trend has rebounded to the high point in June; 4. The game between the US and Iran is becoming more long-term, and the turning point depends on oil prices. The stalemate between the two sides has kept oil prices high, which is a key variable driving up inflation expectations and long-term debt. The decrease in oil prices, coupled with the Ministry of Finance's repurchase and adjustment of the ratio of long and short-term bonds, will have a cumulative effect and drive the real decline in long-term bond yields; 5. CSP is being reevaluated and is no longer just a 'secondary dealer'. Open source model+self-developed medium-sized model rewriting cost structure, gross profit margin is expected to improve. The third quarter financial report of a super large cloud vendor (disclosed in mid to late October) may be very impressive, as CSP performance is a more comprehensive AI landing indicator than large model ARR. 6. The question of 'where is the next coding' itself is wrong. The coding scene is unique and penetrates quickly, making it difficult to replicate again. The real second growth is the agentization of a large number of fragmented non coding workflows; At the same time, coding itself is becoming the underlying paving technology for all non coding processes. 7. The CapEx account will not be clearer until next year. This year is still the peak of spending. Two observation intersections: The growth rate of cloud business revenue exceeds that of capital expenditure; Non coding scenarios are starting to take over the super high growth rate of coding. 8. Watch in three segments before the end of the year, with the best part after the midterm elections: Before mid September, digest hawkish speeches and observe the non farm and inflation trends in August; The uncertainty of mid-term elections from mid September to mid October, the long-term bond yield game, and the impact of Anthropic's IPO on the market. Increased turbulence; After November, political uncertainty will decrease, the third quarter report will be verified, and valuations will be cheaper (SOX's dynamic valuation is currently around 19.2, just over 10% of last year's tariff war low point), which will truly come out; 9. Da Bing, in mid June, was already considered to have entered the high cost-effective configuration range, and at that time, it was said to finish firing within four to five months. Possible liquidity rebound from mid to late September to October; Previously, the new normal in the cryptocurrency market was extreme differentiation. Now, a new cycle is unfolding, driven by three main narrative forces: tokenization/RWA, the combination of AI and Crypto, and compliant ICO 2.0; Thank you 168X, thank you @ 168MrZ