Anthropic's giant IPO is coming, 1. Key information about Anthropic's massive IPO: 1) The expected fundraising scale is 86 billion US dollars, with investment banks discussing a valuation of approximately 1.5 trillion US dollars and a private equity valuation of 965 billion US dollars in May; 2) Consider allowing existing shareholders to sell a portion of their old shares in the IPO. This is different from the path taken by SpaceX and Cerebras this year of only issuing new shares and not selling old shareholders, and is closer to Figma and CoreWeave; 3) Simultaneously discussing two more important unlocking arrangements: Some shareholders may have a lock up period longer than the regular 180 days; Ordinary employees selling stocks after going public may have to go through the preset 10b5-1 instead of randomly selling after the financial report window. 4) Schedule: The prospectus will be publicly released on September 7th after Labor Day, Mid September 15th Investor Roadshow The IPO window from late September to early October may be postponed 2. Allowing existing shareholders to sell stocks during the IPO stage and subsequent unlocking arrangements are two key points worth paying attention to: Adding some old stocks to an IPO essentially involves doing three things together: 1) Provide early investors and employees with an official, priced, and distributable cash out; 2) Put some of the old stocks into the hands of long-term institutions selected by the company first, instead of rushing to the public market six months later; 3) Replace 'give a little before listing' with 'lock for longer after listing'. To put it simply, this is about managing supply, and Anthropic is obviously looking at SpaceX's script to smooth out fluctuations. 3. The most significant aspect of Anthropic's IPO to the market is its computing power bill, which reflects the real business situation. Anthropic integrates steeper model iterations and larger inference volumes. Through the IPO documents, the market can carefully examine Anthropic's operational quality, including its gross profit margin, customer concentration, computing power costs, and renewal quality. On the day the prospectus is released, the pricing game truly begins. 4. More attention should be paid to its IPO timing, and it should be viewed in the current macro and liquidity context. This timing is actually quite sensitive On the 23rd, the framework of "Autumn Breeze Gradually Cools" was proposed. https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2091511833140363356? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A and short-term last weekend here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2093513119184425337? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussing for a long time: currently, the fundamentals of AI are not a problem, with strong profits, but the valuation is exceptionally sensitive to interest rates. When the yield of long-term bonds increases, the market enters a valuation friction zone. Recently, the macro level has been suppressing the fundamentals of the industry. Anthropic's window is stuck right behind a few variables: September non farm payroll and CPI, September FOMC, mid-term elections heating up, and then super IPOs also coming. This will have two impacts: 1) It doesn't come out when liquidity is at its weakest, but when 'money is still there but becoming more selective'; 2) Super IPOs themselves will take away a portion of institutional quotas. SpaceX feeds on the market during roadshows and the space economy sector after its IPO. 5. The meaning of industry is: 1) The model layer is shifting from private equity pricing to public equity pricing. Private equity can support $965 billion through scarcity and narrative; Public funds are subject to revenue, guidance, capex, and free cash flow torture every quarter. As soon as Anthropic was launched, OpenAI、 Other model companies and a bunch of AI application companies will be used as benchmarks. Pricing anchors will appear. 2) AI trading will shift from 'buying computing power upstream' to 'valuing the model layer itself'. The easiest thing in the past two years has been selling shovels. After the model company goes public, the market will first open a public multiple for "model gross profit+inference scale+enterprise binding". If this multiple is set high, the industrial chain can also borrow from it; If the order is broken, the entire AI chain will be discounted again. 3) The race against OpenAI It will transition from a product war to a marketing rhythm war. Whoever publicly discloses their accounts first, accepts the scrutiny of public investors first, and obtains long-term capital and merger currency first. Going public first may not necessarily win, but going public later requires facing an existing valuation anchor, with different levels of difficulty. 6. Anthropic's IPO prospectus documents prioritize these four: 1) Revenue quality: proportion of enterprises, concentration of major customers, contract period, and how much of the 65 billion li annual revenue can withstand audit scrutiny; 2) Unit economy: Reasoning cost, gross profit margin, capitalization method of training expenses. Model companies are most afraid of "fast revenue and unclear profit structure"; 3) Issuance structure: How many new and old stocks are there, who is selling them, how long will they be locked up, and whether the employee 10b5-1 has been realized. 4) Capital expenditure commitment: How to spend the raised money in the next 24 months, and whether it is locked in the computing power contract. The first two tables determine whether it is worthy of $1.5 trillion; The last two tables determine whether it is advisable to hold them for three months after listing. Now wait for the prospectus to come out and read it again. 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