𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Aug 31, 2026 16:14
Without sustained elevated inflation for many years, nominal GDP won't grow fast enough for Debt:GDP to change regardless. Without significant entitlement reforms, mandatory outlays will keep growing as a share of the budget, thus limiting options for fiscal consolidation. Without wildly underreported CPI, entitlement spending will grow rapidly alongside inflation because of indexation, thus negating much of any effort to fix debt:GDP. Without strong growth in a young labor force, the economy's ability to grow robustly on its own and expand the tax base (rather than expand govt expenditure burdens) is weakened. Without a captive domestic savings base ringfenced by strict capital controls, the state will not be able to effectively repress bondholders and capital will flee into other assets. Without policies that force banks and pensions to hold significantly more govt bonds at fixed below-market yields, there can be no terming out of debt and thus no durable reduction of debt costs. Without moving away from bill-heavy issuance toward the aforementioned repression strategy, interest expense will remain volatile and highly sensitive to short rates. Good luck.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)
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