degentrading|8月 31, 2026 06:16
Pre market thoughts - 31 Aug 26
Late into Sunday, US strikes on "L" island gave Asia equities an L. WTI consequently moved higher on the news while yields were somewhat unchanged. E minis opened lower as well.
However as the Asian session got going, early weakness in semis like $0660 were reversed. As of this moment, both NKY and solana:7Lob7rg43kWwmreuxfSTuohun2atBHCXBUkW6KSfpump are about unchanged for the day. $0660 in particular has traded very firmly since the buybacks news. Early pre market weakness in SNDK and MU have also been reversed.
Since last week, we have answered a few question since NVDA's ER and Jackson Hole. NVDA has guided for 70% growth into next year (FY2028) - yes, FY2028 is 2027 for NVDA. This comes at ~$15 EPS and basically puts NVDA at an absurd PEG ratio. I do not think that this will last forever and strongly think that investors will rerate NVDA upwards. This is hugely supportive for the broad semis sector. However, the market is different from the markets of May-June, retail speculators have either been wiped or have lost interest. Hence the buyer pool now would be instis instead.
On neoclouds, the divergence in private vs public neoclouds has gotten pretty extreme. NBIS which has guided to ~1GW of connected power at YE26 and a more rapid pace in '27, alongside with monetisation at 20M/MW - this lands 2027 ARR at 25-30B and FY2027 revs at 17B... NBIS trades at ~55B today. Meanwhile we have private neos raising at 30B valuations with a fraction of revenues. Public markets have been punishing for the neos trade.
In other news, Dwarkesh released an article about the breakout in OAI agent swarms. Give it a read, its pretty scary. Makes you think.
Hugging face (acquired by NVDA) also released a robot - microduck that you can "train yourself with reinforcement learning". This might be a chatgpt moment for physical AI.
In crypto, we had whippy price action in the majors and cex tokens. Underneath it though, RH chain has exploded in usage. Small cap tokens are printing on RH chain while Solana has been languishing. This is probably because RH chain now has much lesser extractive tools vs the toolkit open to Solana users at this point. This wont last forever! I think if you have a small portfolio, RH chain is definitely worth exploring and there are many opportunities there.
Goodluck!(degentrading)
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