I know my friends want to buy at the bottom, but of course I also want to talk about the trends of a few scripts in my mind, which change with the macro events. Bitcoin and US stock macro analysis (This is not me changing, it's the market changing, I have to change) The script for early August: Oil prices are expected to continue to decline (WTI remains below 80 for a long time), inflationary pressures will dissipate, and expectations of interest rate hikes will continue to dissipate to below 30%. In preparation for the midterm elections, the continued decline in oil prices in September has raised expectations of interest rate cuts and begun to support the trend market Therefore, before October, it may be a good bottom time, as long as the macro news supports it, we can get on board. (At that time, I also thought I really wished I could just walk like this.) It's the end of August now, but things didn't go as planned. The oil price has not continued to decline, but has remained in the range of 80-85 for a long time. Although it is not high, it still puts pressure on inflation Walsh's speech was hawkish, raising expectations of a September interest rate hike by over 50%. Actually, I think the market's concerns are somewhat panicked. There is still half a month left, which is a game that can be played. And personally, I think the reasons for raising interest rates in September are not sufficient. So I think it's unlikely to raise interest rates in September. Of course, what I say doesn't count, we can only adjust our actions according to the changes in the event There are several possible trends: one ️⃣ It means there will be a rate hike in September Approaching the September interest rate meeting, we will gradually implement interest rate hikes. Now is not the end, and we will continue to decline until the rate hike is implemented. At that time, the market will trade whether there will be interest rate hikes after September. If there are still expectations of interest rate hikes, no one in the risk market will be immune If the interest rate hike is implemented in September, it will be almost at the bottom by then. If the market trading increases in September and does not increase again, then the market will immediately rush to recover two ️⃣ It means there won't be any interest rate hikes in September So in half a month, the expectation of interest rate hikes will gradually be dispelled. While dispelling it, the market will slowly replenish the decline caused by the expectation of a 50% interest rate hike earlier. Then wait until September to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market will continue to fluctuate, just like the market trend during the previous times when interest rates were kept unchanged Continuing to observe the situation of oil prices and inflation, and returning to the possibility I mentioned at the beginning, is nothing more than prolonging the time three ️⃣ Interest rate cut in September This possibility is very low, so there is no need to say more. In general, it is a game of several variables, and then adjust your own operation Do you want to do band or fixed investment (I myself am Nvidia, holding a short oil price order, and a little Sol, gone) Of course, for the sake of the market in the next few years, there is no need to care about these things when making a fixed investment. It's best to have your own investment framework and logic based on your personal preferences and what target you're working on. Welcome friends to discuss together, DYOR