The other day, this post https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2092775411906404460?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A mentioned: If any one of these three conditions—falling oil prices, declining long-term bond yields, or Waller’s non-hawkish stance—is not met, the probability of the market returning to turbulence and valuation friction increases. It seems like the market is back on the track of 'autumn chill setting in.' The current macro focus of the market revolves around two transmission paths: 1) U.S.-Iran → Oil prices → Inflation; 2) Oil prices, fiscal deficit, big tech bond issuance → Long-term bond yields. The rate hike everyone’s worried about ultimately depends on the trajectory of inflation. Last night, Waller provided a more specific reaction function, clearly stating in his speech: 'We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the target, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we still have work to do.' Based on the literal meaning, it’s not enough for inflation to just decline—it has to decline fast enough. Of course, he didn’t quantify what 'fast enough' means. Overall, with yields not coming down, the market remains under pressure. In the short term, the focus will be on next week’s non-farm payroll data and the subsequent inflation figures. Looking further ahead: September FOMC, midterm elections, and the potential Anthropic IPO. Recently, macro factors have completely overshadowed industry fundamentals. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh: 'Bitget Buy US Stocks: Instant Entry, Seamless Trading.'