Phyrex|Aug 28, 2026 21:05
Although oil prices still haven't reached the level I was hoping for, it's clear that the momentum for increases is slowing down. Based on current information, there are likely two solutions. The first is for Iran to open up Hormuz shipping routes to certain countries and charge fees to offset the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. However, this is more of a temporary fix rather than addressing the root cause. While it could lower oil prices and ease political pressure on Iran, it wouldn't significantly alleviate the living pressures faced by Iranian citizens.
The second option is to return to the June ceasefire agreement with the U.S. This seemed quite possible before, but now Trump appears to be completely unyielding. Plus, Iran has been stirring things up recently, leading the White House to announce that it won't restart the temporary June agreement. However, this approach would also push U.S. inflation and prices higher, so it feels like both sides need a way to save face.
Regardless of the solution, a long-term blockade of Hormuz is definitely not viable. The most likely scenario now is that some countries tacitly allow Iran to charge fees for Hormuz access in exchange for opening it up. After all, it's not just oil—fertilizer and grain also account for a significant portion of shipments through Hormuz.
Back to the market: Today, Walsh's debut at the Jackson Hole Symposium was interpreted by the market as a signal that rate hikes might be considered. This increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike, leading to declines in bitcoin:native and U.S. markets. However, from my personal perspective, the probability of a September rate hike is almost nonexistent. Even if inflation rises in August compared to July, it won't be significantly high.
Plus, with just two months until the midterm elections, if Trump goes into it with oil prices this high, I think the Republican Party is really going to struggle.
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