Gold is tanking, down 3% to $4,462 in its worst Jackson Hole day in at least a DECADE. Here's what actually broke: Gold entered the day up roughly 14% for August, on pace for its best month since 1999, per UOB. The rally went vertical last week after the US Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-dated debt to $4 BILLION per operation, sinking the dollar to a three-month low. Then Warsh killed the setup in one speech. The Fed Chair told Jackson Hole that inflation is the Fed's "predominant focus," blamed the central bank itself for 65 months above target, and refused to give forward guidance on rates. Markets repriced instantly: - September rate HIKE odds jumped from 30% to 49% - 2-year Treasury yields spiked 8 basis points - the dollar rebounded off its three-month low Higher yields and a stronger dollar are gold's two worst enemies, and it got both at once. The drop then knifed through gold's 200-day average near $4,525, adding technical selling on top of profit-taking. The closest parallel, Powell's 2022 "pain" address, was followed by a further 6% slide over the following month. The counterweight: the Treasury buyback bid that fueled the rally hasn't gone anywhere. The September Fed meeting is now a coin flip between a hold and the first HIKE of the Warsh era.(Coin Bureau)